It is predicted next week that with the expansion trend of the scope of production restriction, many steel enterprises plan to stop production for maintenance in September, and the market resources are relatively reduced. In addition, the coke at the raw material end has been rising for nine consecutive rounds, and the billet and pig iron have also been raised. The price support of steel mills has been strengthened according to their wishes. They do not enter the traditional consumption peak season in September. The downstream terminal demand is mostly purchased on demand, and the market trading volume has not increased significantly, Merchants make more inquiries, watch carefully, understand the details in advance, and continue to look down

1、 In the spot market, construction steel: due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction, the planned maintenance of steel enterprises has increased. In addition, entering the peak consumption season in September, the downstream terminal demand has been gradually released, the market shipment is OK, and the intensity of environmental protection and production restriction has increased. The planned maintenance of steel enterprises has increased, the raw material end continues to rise, and the bottom support of the price still exists. It is expected that the market price of building materials will fluctuate strongly next week.

Hot rolled coil: rise. With the increase of blast furnace maintenance plan of steel plant in September, the hot rolling output has been affected. In addition, the PMI data in August is not as expected, the expansion of manufacturing industry has weakened, and the market sentiment has been frustrated. However, at present, the market has expectations for the maintenance of steel plant in the later stage, and the demand in September is expected to make up for the demand affected by flood and epidemic situation in the earlier stage, The hot rolling market is expected to be strong and volatile next week.

Medium and heavy plate: in the upward direction, with the national economic boost and stricter environmental protection and production restriction, the support of the raw material market is strengthened, the production cost remains high, and the support of steel enterprises is strengthened. There is still room for rise in the spot market, but under the influence of weak demand, the increase is limited. It is expected that the market price of medium and heavy plate may rise steadily next week.

Strip steel: price increase

With the promotion of economic recovery in various regions, the demand for steel has gradually increased, coupled with the release of inventory, and traders have strong expectations for the future market of Jinjiu, the environmental protection restrictions of superimposed steel enterprises have increased, the supply side has gradually decreased, there are signs of tightening, businesses have pulled up, and it is expected that the strip steel price or shock will be strong next week.

Profile: Rise

The billet continues to rise, and the manufacturers still have a certain price support psychology. With the advent of the traditional peak season in September, the manufacturers' mentality has improved. However, although the steel inventory is in an orderly reduction state, after all, oversupply is always a pain point. In addition, the futures disk trend is extremely unstable, and the procurement is still cautious. It is expected that the profile market will be narrow and strong next week.

Pipe: Rise

Entering the peak season in September, the market demand has been released, but it is slow and uneven. Driven by raw materials, there is a good time difference in market trading. Most manufacturers follow the market, the pipe price is high, and the fear of high downstream is still high. Traders replenish the warehouse on demand. However, with the support of cost, the manufacturers are optimistic. It is expected that the market price of pipes will fluctuate strongly next week.

2、 Raw material Market

Iron ore: steady decline

The general index dropped to around us $139. The business mentality was poor and the operation was gradually cautious. In September, Tangshan, Wu'an, Northeast China and other places limited production and overweight, merged about 9 large steel enterprises, and planned to stop production and overhaul the blast furnace. The demand of steel mills decreased, and the concentrators also intended to loosen the shipment, but they still refused to recognize the large decline. The market was deadlocked. With the subsequent loose supply, the demand decreased, Iron ore prices are expected to be stable and weak next week.

Scrap: Rising

With the further development of environmental protection and production restriction, most steel enterprises plan to stop production for maintenance, and the raw material cost support is strong. Most steel enterprises transfer their goals to scrap steel. However, with the rise of the spot market price, scrap steel resources are limited. Businesses expect better in the traditional peak season, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will run stably, moderately and strongly next week.

Coke: upward

This week, the eighth and ninth rounds of coke rose and landed quickly, and the ninth round of increase was expanded to 200. The expectation of coke enterprises to limit production has been strengthened, the scope of limited production has an expanding trend, the coke supply has been tightened, and the cost support of raw coal is strong. The steel plant still has a strong demand for coke, and it is expected that the coke market price may continue to be strong next week.

Pig iron: stable, medium and strong

At present, the cost of pig iron is high, but the demand is poor, there is no transaction support, the profit of the iron plant is low, the business mentality is not optimistic, and there is environmental protection inspection. The production enthusiasm of the iron plant is reduced. Now the coke trend is strong. Driven by the cost, the iron plant still has the intention to increase the price. It is expected that the pig iron price may be stable and strong next week.

3、 There are several influencing factors

1. Li Keqiang: strictly control the capacity scale of industries with high energy consumption and high emission, and vigorously develop energy conservation and environmental protection industries

At the opening ceremony of Taiyuan energy low carbon development forum in 2021, the Chinese government attaches great importance to high-quality energy development and addressing climate change, and strives to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China has carried out the battle of pollution prevention and control, focused on adjusting and optimizing the energy and industrial structure, paid close attention to energy conservation and emission reduction, and continuously improved the quality of the ecological environment.

Reducing carbon emissions, environmental protection and limiting production have become the norm, and strive to achieve development and green transformation and promote transformation and upgrading. As a top priority, most steel enterprises plan to stop production for maintenance. For the spot steel market, the limited supply of resources has boosted the steel price.

2. This week, the central bank carried out a total of 130 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the largest in nearly a month. Increased financial support

On September 3, the central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding. The term is 7 days and the bid winning interest rate is 2.2%. In view of the maturity of RMB 50 billion reverse repurchase, the open market has realized a net return of RMB 40 billion. This week, a total of 130 billion yuan of reverse repo was carried out, and the total net return of 40 billion yuan in the open market that week was the largest in nearly a month.

3. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills investigated was 74.22%, down 17.19% year-on-year

The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed was 74.22%, unchanged month on week, down 17.19% year-on-year; The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 85.45%, with a month on month increase of 0.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.07%; The profitability of steel mills was 88.31%, down 0.87% month on month and 6.93% year-on-year; The daily average hot metal output was 2.2745 million tons, an increase of 3900 tons month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 241400 tons.

4、 Comprehensive view

With the expansion trend of the scope of production restriction, many steel enterprises planned to stop production for maintenance in September, and the market resources were relatively reduced. In addition, the coke at the raw material end increased for nine consecutive rounds, and the billet and pig iron also increased. The price support of steel mills was strengthened according to their wishes. They did not enter the traditional peak consumption season in September. The downstream terminal demand was mostly purchased on demand, the market trading volume did not rise significantly, and merchants made inquiries and waited carefully, It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate strongly next week.